Americans Are Becoming More Traditional

01.19.17

Written by Richard Hokenson 


Recent statistics released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Center for Health Statistics indicate an end to years of marriage and family decline. Since an intact family has been shown to offer numerous benefits, these changes bode well for American society.

Specifically:

  • The U.S. divorce rate continued to decline in 2015, reaching a 40-year low (see Chart 1).

  • The marriage rate stabilized in 2010 and has since risen to 32.3 marriages per 1,000 unmarried women (see Chart 2).

  • The majority of America’s 73.7 million children under the age of 18 still live with two parents (see Chart 3). The recent decline in births outside marriage indicates that the majority of children will continue to live with two parents (see Chart 4).
 
 

This shift in the social mosaic also has a wealth of important investment conclusions which we will be reporting on in the months ahead. The important, if not the most important outcome is that this is a massive tailwind for home ownership. The owner occupancy rate ticked up in the third quarter of last year and we would expect it to continue to advance.

References:

Cherlin, Andrew, “A Happy Ending to a Half-Century of Family Change?”, Population and Development Review 42 (1): 121-129 (March 2016).

Gemmill, Alison and Daniel Schneider, “The Surprising Decline in the Non-marital Fertility Rate in the United States”, Population and Development Review 00 (0): 1-23 (December 2016).



 Richard Hokenson is a pioneer in the application of demographics to economic and financial market forecasting.

This update was researched and written by Richard Hokenson, as of January 19, 2017